Heat pump water heater research vault — overview (16–18 Aug 2026)
Southern Heat Pumps / Engineer: water heater · Lexington · quest only
Quest design a novel heat pump water heater for the US and Canada that uses AI to maximize efficiency.
Product research brief. Not a sales sheet. Figures are from vault.db after ingest A–D (16 Aug 2026). Disagreements are left standing. No Decision nodes. No CAD.
00
Vault size
Verified against vault.db. 55 works = 6 research reports + 9 scratches + 40 primary sources (including stubs). 289 claims, 28 concepts, 14 parts, 19 markets, 441 edges.
55works
289claims
28concepts
14parts
19markets
441edges
Node inventory
Counts as stored. Claims dominate because each work asserts load-bearing sentences.
Works by kind
6 research reports · 9 scratches · 40 primary sources, including stubs.
The spine of the corpus. Wording below is the vault’s, not a paraphrase that would smooth tensions.
Layer 1
The job
A comfortable shower is 15–25 kW. No residential heat pump and no 30 A circuit can supply that live. The machine must store, burn gas, or the shower is worse.
DOE UEF test assigns daily volume from first-hour rating (10 / 38 / 55 / 84 gal), not from field measurement.
Conversion used in the third-pass: kW = gpm × ΔT(°F) × 0.1465
Layer 2
The world stock
Heaters are local machines.
US
glass-lined storage, gas and electric nearly even, HPWH still a small slice (190k shipments 2023).
Canada
SHEU 2019 — 12.4 M heaters, 10.8 M tanks, 34k HPWH quality M.
Japan
gas + Eco-cute (10 M cumulative shipments Mar 2025, not remaining stock).
England
combi.
Brazil
chuveiro or no heat (PPH P1: ~70% electric in 2005, ~40% electric / ~60% no-heat in 2019).
Solar thermal
SHWW 2025 544 GWth / 443 TWh; China dominates; thermosiphon in the rest of the south.
World-stock callouts that have counts
Not a ranking. Stock ≠ annual shipments ≠ cumulative shipments. Canada SHEU 2019 is quality M. Eco-cute 10 M is cumulative shipments to Mar 2025, not remaining stock. US 190k is 2023 HPWH shipments.
Same figures, with the metric attached
Place
Figure
What it is
Quality flag
Canada
12.4 M
heaters, SHEU 2019 stock
quality M
Canada
10.8 M
tanks, SHEU 2019 stock
quality M
Japan
10 M
Eco-cute cumulative shipments to Mar 2025
not remaining stock
US
190k
HPWH shipments, 2023
shipments, not stock
Canada
34k
HPWH, SHEU 2019 stock
quality M
Layer 3
The clock
Night-charge regimes (Australia ripple, Japan 深夜電力, France HP/HC) are being inverted toward solar noon.
CTA-2045 / EcoPort is the North American port.
IEEFA: hot water ~¼ of Australian household electricity; AGL 140 MW via PLUS ES.
Layer 4
The incumbent stack
After 6 May 2029, common-sized US electric storage must meet heat-pump UEF.
The volume machine is an A. O. Smith Juárez glass-lined tank, Highly-class China rotary, R-134a, 4.5 kW backup elements, Wise Ally / Computime controls, optional EcoPort.
Glass-lining furnace is the non-electronics CAPEX bottleneck.
05
Parts the graph tracks
Fourteen Part nodes. Country of origin unpublished unless a filing names it. co2-outdoor is Voltex X, not 2026 volume.
Highly 29, China WH 22, Computime 13, Time Engineering 12. Changfa ships evaporator and clip.
Do not claim USMCA origin; RVC unpublished.
06
Tensions left standing
Each pair is a disagreement or a quality break. Do not average. Do not pick a winner. The 9 disputes edges live here as readable pairs.
NOPR 27 quads
vs
Federal Register 17.6 quads
HPTS page “NEEA Tier 3”
vs
QPL Tier 4
Table UEF 3.8 / prose 3.88
vs
QPL 3.80
2016 handbook heat-pump floor 45°F
vs
2024 handbook / UseCARE 37°F
Reports “~95% of HP compressors”
vs
HPM “~90% of rotary manufacturing capacity”
REN21 China 391.8 GWth
vs
SHWW 410.1 GWth
Brazil viral 70% electric shower
vs
that figure is 2005, not 2019
Eco-cute “close to 15%” stock phrase
vs
not found in extracted HPM pages
15–20 kg copper
vs
flagged as air-to-air space HP, not HPWH
TSD Chapter 5 dollars never arrived (download stubs)
vs
$207.87 / $446.41 / $479.57 / $526.86 stay with the already-opened TSD in the reports
South Africa GHS 2023/2024 are Incapsula stubs
vs
3.3% solar geyser unconfirmed
Several ImportInfo supplier pages are login walls
vs
APCOM, Morita, Heatec, Thermalub, Water Products, Qiaoyun
07
Design implication
08
Stubs and holes
Unreadable on purpose
SA GHS
DOE TSD downloads
Murata datasheet
NEEA landing page
fcc.gov Access Denied PDFs
several ImportInfo logins
Empty
CAD
Assembly nodes
Decision nodes
Neo4j
Intended stack (not running as a graph): Neo4j backbone; Blender / FreeCAD / OpenSCAD for geometry. Until then the store is file-backed: vault.db, notes/, graph/*.jsonl.